In Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should, globe-trotting pollster John Zogby makes the case for polling as much more than a winner and loser advance indicator. Instead, he argues for polling as a means to understand the underlying currents of public opinion and social behavior. Using stories from his own decades-long career, Zogby shows how responsible polling can capture the “why” behind polling results-sometimes providing insight beyond raw statistics.
Polling’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Zogby begins from the assumptions set for bad and good polls while sharing his experiences as an independent pollster. He points out instances when, by poor or immediate conduct of polls, pollsters misunderstood or neglected valuable insights. The author’s example is exhibited through the Reuters MSNBC 2000 Tracking Poll. Such transparency will then enable the readers to understand that polling, although sometimes a tool used more for prediction than for understanding, can be a tool of deepening understanding.
Polling in the Digital World
Zogby talks about how technological changes affected the way polling was done. From once being a landline-based activity, the digital world now provided nationwide online survey services and more means by which to reach the people wherever they spend most of their time. However, the challenges it imposed were alike-at times many of these new approaches seemed to contradict many good ideas. Zogby discusses the implications of the changes and stresses the need to adjust to changing new norms of data collection as well as interpretation.
Not LOST
From Zogby’s rhetoric, the main idea appears to be “how to interpret polls thoughtfully.” He uses the 2016 U.S. presidential election as a negative example on how results from polls can be exceedingly correct but misunderstood. Here, Zogby brings out how the problem is not about data but rather the way analysts interpret it.
He shows how changes in demographics can dramatically alter the outcome and how the opinions must take this into consideration. For anyone working with public opinion — including those doing trendspotting research company — it bears mentioning.
Beyond Numbers: How Polls Reveal America’s Story
To Zogby, polling is science and art. He views every poll as a piece of a story describing human behavior: each data point reflects individual values, motivations, and emotions. In “Reading Polls from the Bottom Up,” he tells how to identify niche demographics-frequent Walmart shoppers or NASCAR fans, for example-to reveal overlooked patterns in public sentiment. He says by focusing on the human element, polling can offer an interesting glimpse into what drives the cultural aspects of public opinion.
A Call for Transparency
Zogby concludes his book with a plea for more transparencies and humility in the polling industry as well. Several occasions, like the miscalculation of the victory of John Kerry in 2004, exemplify the failures of the pollsters to humble themselves and retell their stories truthfully. Humbleness seems one of the repeated themes when saying that the goal of polling is understanding rather than guessing the outcomes. Conclusion: Votes Beyond Expectations Beyond the Horse Race will give readers a view of polling that is both personal experience and critical analysis unique to Zogby. He concludes that polls, interpreted with care, reveal the forces shaping public opinion. For political pollsters, market research company, and all involved in the business of public opinion research, Zogby’s book reminds them that polling entails much more than numbers-it entails a better understanding about society’s shifting values and motivations.